October 4, 2005

White Sox to Lose 2005 ALCS

The White Sox will lose the ALCS. They will beat the Red Sox, and then lose to New York or Anaheim.

How do I know this? The recent success (or lack thereof) of the Cubs

Since the League Championship series was expanded to seven games in 1985, and indeed since the series was introduced in 1969, the White Sox and the Cubs have had their playoff lives intertwined. It really becomes apparant after 1985, though. Here's a list of the two teams' postseason results since '85:

1989-Lost NLCS
1998-Lost NLDS
2003-Lost NLCS

White Sox:
1993-Lost ALCS
2000-Lost ALDS
2005-???? (Lose ALCS)

It all started when the cubs, four years after our origin of history (1985 when the series was expanded) lost the NLCS. four years after that, the White Sox lost the ALCS. Do you see where this is going? The Cubs do something and the White Sox repeat it after four or, later, two years. It keeps going. In 1998, four more years later (disregarding the strike season of 94) the Cubs lost the NLDS. Two years after that, The White Sox lose the ALDS. Another two years and the Cubs lose the NLCS, and after another two years you have 2005, in which, the Sox are in the playoffs again.

The fact that the number drops from four to two is interesting, and a cause for alarm for a solid theory, but I think I know why. Because there were no playoffs in 1994, in order to keep the continuity, we can subtract one from each subsequent year. By that standard, the '98 season was actually the 97 series, making it 4 years from the last appearance of the Sox in 1993. Also, since the division series was added in 1995, it doubled the number of teams in the postseason, making it twice as easy to get to the playoffs, allowing the Cubs and Sox to take half as much time as it did before.

Even though this is, in fact, not the year of the White Sox, there is still a chance we will finally get our World Series championships. The series in which the two teams lost has gone from the championship series to the division series, and now back to the championship series. At first glance, it looks like our beloved Chicago baseball teams are stuck in an eternal rut of getting close without winning. However, let us look a little deeper.

Before the division series was introduced, the championship series was the first round of the playoffs. To look at it that way, the CubSox have lost in rounds 1,1, and now 2. This whole history began when the playoff format was changed, jolting the Cubs and Sox into the same line of history. The next time the playoff format was changed, 1995, I think it had the effect of resetting the round-counter for the CubSox's postseason finale. There is still a possibility that the number will oscillate, but the optimist in me would like to think that the trend since the last postseason format shake-up will continue and the number will go to three during the next cycle ('07 for the cubs and '09 for the White Sox). Since there is no round beyond the third, the World Series, then it stands to reason that the third round must be the last round the team reaches. Here, I have two theories.

If you consider the World Series the last round of the playoffs, then the round-counter cannot go beyond three. Therefore, when the round-counter is at three (2007 and 2009) we can't know if they will lose or not since the round-counter only tells us which round the CubSox will reach. By that logic, they will have a fifty percent chance to win the series that year. I call this the "Chance at Gratification Soon Theory".

However, if you consider the division series as the round of eight, the championship series the round of four, and the world series the round of two, then I say that the world series winner is in the round of one. By that logic, the round-counter can go up to four. That means that the CubSox will lose their series in 2007 and 2009. But during the next cycle, 2011 and 2013, the round-counter will be four, meaning they will win those series. I call this the "Guaranteed Gratification Later Theory".

Personally, I like the Guaranteed Gratification Later theory because it's been this long since we won a world series, what's another couple of years, right?

Which world series theory you want to believe is up to you, but one thing is clear. History does repeat itself when two entities are tied together by fate. Those two entities are the White Sox and the Cubs, and that intertwining of fate says the White Sox will lose in the 2005 American League Championship Series

Posted by chupathingy on October, 4, 2005 at 3:33 PM | Comments (2)

Too bad your calculations don't point to a Cubs vs Sox world series 2006, on the 100th anniversary of the last time that happend. I was looking forward too it.

Comment by: mallio at 2:15 PM, October, 6, 2005

sorry chief, but science is science ;)

Comment by: chupathingy at 2:49 PM, October, 6, 2005